Why investors should resist the urge to reach for yield

As published in the Minneapolis Star Tribune 10/17/2020.

“I can’t remember the last time we reached for yield and it worked out in our favor.”

That was the first thought shared in a recent discussion at our office about the current market environment. All things being equal, investments that pay bigger dividends or higher interest rates sound more attractive. The problem, of course, is that things are almost never equal. There’s a reason certain stocks and bonds offer larger yields than others, and it’s imperative you understand those reasons before making investment decisions.

We understand investors’ desire for more yield. Thanks in large part to historic amounts of bond buying by the Federal Reserve, interest rates have never been lower. When the 10-year U.S. Treasury yields around 0.7%, it’s hard to earn an attractive return on conservative investments.

That said, putting too much emphasis on yield can be dangerous. The benefit of higher yield comes with a trade-off. If a particular bond (or bond fund) has a higher yield than another, you can expect it has either a lower credit quality or longer duration. Greater yield is meant to compensate for that additional risk, but how much more yield one receives depends on market conditions.

The spread between investment-grade bonds and high-yield bonds (those rated “BB” or below) is a helpful tool in this regard. For most of the last three years, that spread has oscillated around 4%. When a global pandemic sent markets into a panic in March, the spread exploded to nearly 11%. At that point, investors willing to accept greater risk of default were compensated generously (11% more interest each year than they could get on higher-quality bonds).

Since then, however, the investment-grade vs. high-yield spread has fallen below 5%, the lowest since late February. It’s true the Fed’s willingness to buy corporate bonds reduces the likelihood of corporate bankruptcies, but the rewards of taking on lower-quality credit are also lower.

Bonds with longer maturities and longer duration, meanwhile, bring more sensitivity to interest rates. If the Fed remains committed to avoiding negative rates, which have proved problematic in Europe and Japan, that will prevent yields from falling much lower. Rates could on the other hand increase significantly when inflation eventually accelerates. Rising rates and longer duration will be a toxic combination for bond investors, and one that leads to losses in what is supposed to be the conservative slice of investment portfolios.

Stocks that pay larger dividends likewise do so for a reason. The payouts are usually offset by lower earnings growth or exposure to distressed market sectors. Lots of stocks carry supersized yields not because cash flows are improving but because their share prices have been crushed. While some companies will bounce back from this recession, others that seem like bargains may never fully recover from the pandemic.

The businesses most capable of adapting and innovating will be the biggest winners in a post-COVID economy. With corporate earnings growth likely to remain suppressed well into 2021, we consider high-quality growth stocks an attractive alternative to dividend payers.

It’s understandable to feel frustrated by low rates and low dividends, but reaching for yield carries more risk than reward.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.

Recent Posts:

Leading indicators support market strength

/
There is always an argument to be made that the stock market is overvalued. Here's a sampling of the current menu for pessimists: Fed tapering is imminent, Stubbornly high inflation, Earnings growth has peaked, Delta variant prolonging the pandemic, Supply chain disruptions. All of those are legitimate factors when considering economic outlooks, but don't forget the following...

'Follow the Fed' made sense for investors, but what about when the Fed's course is uncertain?

/
"Follow the Fed" has proven to be a relatively simple and successful investment strategy, but keeping up with the latest developments at our nation's central bank isn't as straightforward as it used to be.

Keep Strong Market Returns in Perspective

/
Face-to-face client meetings are a thing again in the Marks Group office. Oftentimes, those start with an exasperated retelling of trying times experienced during the pandemic, after which we usually conclude by saying, "At least the market is up!" The S&P 500 has gained nearly 20% year-to-date and more than doubled since its low-point 18 months ago. As of Aug. 31, the S&P had risen seven months in a row. Fifty-four times this year, it closed at an all-time high. The positive momentum, in other words, has been unrelenting.

Leading indicators support market strength

/
There is always an argument to be made that the stock market is overvalued. Here's a sampling of the current menu for pessimists: Fed tapering is imminent, Stubbornly high inflation, Earnings growth has peaked, Delta variant prolonging the pandemic, Supply chain disruptions. All of those are legitimate factors when considering economic outlooks, but don't forget the following...

'Follow the Fed' made sense for investors, but what about when the Fed's course is uncertain?

/
"Follow the Fed" has proven to be a relatively simple and successful investment strategy, but keeping up with the latest developments at our nation's central bank isn't as straightforward as it used to be.

Keep Strong Market Returns in Perspective

/
Face-to-face client meetings are a thing again in the Marks Group office. Oftentimes, those start with an exasperated retelling of trying times experienced during the pandemic, after which we usually conclude by saying, "At least the market is up!" The S&P 500 has gained nearly 20% year-to-date and more than doubled since its low-point 18 months ago. As of Aug. 31, the S&P had risen seven months in a row. Fifty-four times this year, it closed at an all-time high. The positive momentum, in other words, has been unrelenting.

The LPL registered representatives associated with the website may only discuss securities or transact business with persons who are residents of: AL, AZ, CA, CO, FL, IA, IL, IN, ME, MI, MN, MO, NC, ND, NE, NY, OK, OR, SC, TX, VA, WI.
Barron’s Top Financial Advisors (2010-2021) is based on assets under management, revenue produced for the firm, regulatory record, quality of practice and philanthropic work.
The Forbes Best-In-State Wealth Advisor (2018-2021) and the Forbes America’s Top Wealth Advisors (2017) are based on client retention, industry experience, review of compliance records, firm nominations; and quantitative criteria, including: assets under management and revenue generated for their firms.