
Massive market rally leaves stocks in a soaring but strange place
The late summer positivity is pervasive on Wall Street.
That’s what a massive rally in stock prices will do.
Consider us as excited as everyone else that the S&P 500 has soared more than 30% since its April low. Recency bias will lead investors to feel like the good times are likely to keep rolling (and roll on they might). But let’s take a moment to appreciate the significance of what equities have done and point out some unusual features of our current market conditions.
When the S&P set a new all-time high on June 27, it capped the benchmark’s swiftest-ever recovery from a decline of at least 15%. In only 89 trading days, the S&P lost 20% from its high, then rallied all the way back.
Since then, the positive momentum has persisted, albeit at a slower pace. The S&P rose 2.2% in July and has grinded slightly higher thus far in August. But as the largest companies continue to deliver the biggest gains, the market has become ever more concentrated.
The largest seven stocks in the S&P 500 (Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Broadcom) now make up 35% of the benchmark. If we include the 10 largest companies, that number rises to 40%. Earlier this month, Nvidia’s market capitalization grew so large that it became the first company to represent 8% of the S&P 500 on its own.
In terms of sector performance, technology’s trailing three-month returns have doubled the second- and third-best sectors. The NASDAQ finished July on one of its longest-ever stretches trading above its 20-day moving average (second only to a period in 1999). With that in mind, it’s no wonder you’re starting to hear comparisons between current market conditions and the late 1990s.
Those comparisons are, of course, premature, but current valuations are by no means cheap. The S&P’s forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has climbed above 22. Only once in the last 10 years has its forward P/E topped 23. In other words, these are not unprecedented levels but certainly unusual.
As of Aug. 12, the S&P 500 had made 16 all-time highs so far this year. But equities are not the only asset class setting records. Home prices, measured nationally, just set an all-time high. Bitcoin, the poster child for cryptocurrencies, is near its all-time high. Gold is near an all-time high.
As every consumer knows, the price of “stuff” is also near all-time highs. The most recent consumer price index (CPI) data released this week showed 2.7% inflation from a year earlier. The inflation numbers were in line with expectations, but the bigger concern is whether it will meaningfully re-accelerate once the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cuts as soon as next month.
Corporate earnings cumulatively are not quite at record levels, but they continue to outperform expectations. As we near the end of second-quarter reporting season, the blended annual earnings growth for S&P 500 companies is almost 12%. This will almost certainly be the third-consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth.
So everything seems to be up, which is something worth celebrating and something worth your attention. As we often mention, momentum can be a powerful driver of market movements and is something working in stocks’ favor. But we would advise against chasing performance based on the fear of missing out on gains.
The best stretches for stocks often lead investors to further increase risk at inopportune times. The final four months of 2025 will not be as strong as the previous four. A disciplined approach and “responsible growth” should be the goal, even though we can agree “remarkable growth” warrants appreciation when it happens.

Authors
Ben Marks & Brett Angel
Investment Advice offered through Marks Group Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investments and strategies may be appropriate for you, consult with us at Marks Group Wealth Management or another trusted investment adviser. Mention of individual equities in this commentary are for informational purposes only and are not intended to represent a recommendation.
Stock investing involves market risk including loss of principal. Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise. International and emerging market investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and non-U.S. based common stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The market value, the last sale price multiplied by total shares outstanding, is calculated throughout the trading day, and is related to the total value of the Index.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is comprised of 30 stocks that are major factors in their industries and widely held by individuals and institutional investors.
Russell 1000 Growth Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with higher price to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values.
Russell 1000 Value Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values.
The Russell 2000 Index is an unmanaged index generally representative of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell Index, which represents approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index.
MSCI EAFE Index consists of the following developed market country indices: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets.
VIX-The Chicago Board Options Exchange’s CBOE Volatility Index, a popular measure of the stock market’s expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options. It is calculated and disseminated on a real-time basis by the CBOE, and is often referred to as the fear index or fear gauge.
The Hang Seng Index, or HSI, is a free-float market capitalization-weighted index of the largest companies that trade on the Hong Kong Exchange (HKEx).
The DAX Stock Index is a free-float market capitalization-weighted index of the largest companies that trade on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange (FRA).
Nikkei is a figure indicating the relative price of representative shares on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei is equivalent to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index in the United States.
You may also like
Massive market rally leaves stocks in a soaring but strange place
The late summer positivity is pervasive on Wall Street. That’s what a massive rally in stock prices will do. Consider us as excited as everyone else that the S&P 500 has soared more than 30% since its April low.
Investing Like a Billionaire Not as Difficult as it Seems
Jeanie Buss, majority owner of the Los Angeles Lakers, announced last month she had agreed to sell most of her family’s stake in the NBA team based on an updated valuation of $10 billion.
U.S. stock market hardens after economic volatility, but some threats remain
How far the stock market has come without traveling very far is remarkable. As we near the midway point of 2025, the major U.S. equity benchmarks sit less than 2% from where they began on January 1…