June Market Recap
Even slightly negative months for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ couldn’t prevent US equities from booking their best three-month stretch in years.
Despite slipping lower in June, the S&P 500 rose 15% in the second quarter (April 1 – June 30), while the NASDAQ gained more than 21%. It is the best quarterly performance since Q2 2020, when US stocks began their sharp rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic selloff. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 13% in the last three months, its best quarter since 2022.
Sector performance was relatively split in June. Six of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 were positive, led by Industrials (+7.2%) and Health Care (+6.5%). Five sectors finished lower. Communication Services (-7.9%) and Energy (-5.1%) fell the most.
Benchmark Returns: June 2026 | YTD 2026
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Dow Jones
|
S&P 500
|
NASDAQ
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+2.52% | +8.85%
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-1.06% | +9.55%
|
-2.81% | +12.79%
|
|---|
The strong quarter overall masked a change in the trend of technology stocks leading this bull market higher. The tech sector lost 3.3% in June, but was down more than 9% from June 2 to June 25 until a late-month rebound. It’s a reminder that sentiment can change fast, especially with fast-evolving technologies like A.I.
The market’s outlook on Federal Reserve policy also contributed to the tech selloff. Early in June, a consensus began building that interest rates will likely remain higher for longer given rising inflation, an outlook that echoes similar predictions from a few years ago.
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh presided over his first Federal Open Market Committee meeting in June. While no changes were made to the Fed Funds rate (still 3.50% to 3.75%), Warsh did remove “forward guidance” from the central bank’s regular communications. It’s a small but significant change to the way markets will interpret and react to central bank policy.
The US war with Iran brought familiar headlines that created hope for resolution without any official end to conflict. This time, it was a “Memorandum of Understanding” announced on June 14 that extended an existing ceasefire and suggested more negotiations to come. Think of it as a framework for de-escalation. Since then, however, the US launched airstrikes against Iranian weapons storage sites and Iran reportedly attacked a commercial ship in the Strait of Hormuz.
The good news is that oil prices have fallen drastically in the last six weeks. West Texas Intermediate crude oil ended June trading at $68 per barrel, down nearly 40% from their highs in mid-May. That is welcome news for American families filling their gas tanks on summer roadtrips, but rising inflation remains a hurdle.
The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed 4.2% inflation over the last year, including a 24% surge in energy costs over that time. Concerns about inflation and tighter monetary policy also led the World Bank to forecast only 2.5% global economic growth this year.
International equities performed similarly to US stocks last month. Non-US Developed Markets fell 0.9% in June. Emerging Market equities decreased 0.3%. Small-cap US equities, which have meaningfully less technology exposure than the major equity benchmarks, gained 3.6% in June. The small-cap Russell 2000 index is up 22% so far this year.
Bond yields have remained relatively steady through the military and monetary uncertainty. Ten-year US Treasury yields ended the month at 4.45%, almost exactly where they were a month earlier.
Gold prices continued their fall from all-time highs set earlier this year. Gold dipped 11.8% in June and finished the month just above $4,000 per ounce.
Ben Marks
Chief Investment Officer
Brett Angel
Senior Wealth Advisor
Investment Advice offered through Marks Group Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor.
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Stock investing involves market risk including loss of principal. Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise. International and emerging market investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. Because of their narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and non-U.S. based common stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The market value, the last sale price multiplied by total shares outstanding, is calculated throughout the trading day, and is related to the total value of the Index.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is comprised of 30 stocks that are major factors in their industries and widely held by individuals and institutional investors.
Russell 1000 Growth Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with higher price to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values.
Russell 1000 Value Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values.
The Russell 2000 Index is an unmanaged index generally representative of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell Index, which represents approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index.
MSCI EAFE Index consists of the following developed market country indices: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets.
VIX-The Chicago Board Options Exchange’s CBOE Volatility Index, a popular measure of the stock market’s expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options. It is calculated and disseminated on a real-time basis by the CBOE, and is often referred to as the fear index or fear gauge.
