Recession is far from a worst-case scenario
The two most popular conversations in financial media, Fed policy and inflation, usually lead to the same question: Is the U.S. economy headed for a recession or not? All this talk about “soft landings,” whether or not the Fed can “thread the needle,” and any other tired clichés you may have heard in recent months are focused on that singular outcome.
Hard to have faith in the Fed’s new religion
The Fed has found a new religion. Seen the error of its ways. The most powerful man in the financial world, Jerome Powell, has come to realize that perhaps endless injections of monetary stimulus and artificially low interest rates might have some negative side effects after all. Like the highest inflation in 40 years. But Powell and the Fed governors have seen the light. From now on, their approach to monetary policy will be different. Strong asset returns are no longer a priority. Reining in inflation is all that matters.
Red-hot housing market brings challenges
An ugly first quarter for the stock market has many investors in search of a silver lining. Here’s one: The value of your house has never been higher! The latest numbers in the Case-Shiller U.S. Home Price Index suggest the average American home increased nearly 20% in the last 12 months. All 20 metropolitan areas saw annual gains of at least 11% with the biggest jumps occurring in Phoenix (33%), Tampa, Fla., (31%) and Miami (28%).
War, unfortunately, is nothing new for markets
The consequences of war are impossible to ignore. In only weeks since Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, the military conflict and a tidal wave of coordinated sanctions have washed away the normal structure of our global economy.
Rising rates do not dictate stock prices
All signs point toward March for the first increase to the Federal Reserve’s key interest rates that have been near zero for the last two years.
Moderate stock valuations reduce downside risk
The S&P 500 gained 27% in 2021, and yet most US stocks are cheaper today than they were a year ago.
Index Returns Hide Shifting Market Trends
U.S. equities are on pace to gain more than 20% in 2021, and it’s been one of the smoothest rides in recent memory.
Leading indicators support market strength
There is always an argument to be made that the stock market is overvalued. Here’s a sampling of the current menu for pessimists: Fed tapering is imminent, Stubbornly high inflation, Earnings growth has peaked, Delta variant prolonging the pandemic, Supply chain disruptions
‘Follow the Fed’ made sense for investors, but what about when the Fed’s course is uncertain?
“Follow the Fed” has proven to be a relatively simple and successful investment strategy, but keeping up with the latest developments at our nation’s central bank isn’t as straightforward as it used to be.
Keep Strong Market Returns in Perspective
Face-to-face client meetings are a thing again in the Marks Group office. Oftentimes, those start with an exasperated retelling of trying times experienced during the pandemic, after which we usually conclude by saying, “At least the market is up!”