Stocks reach a fork in the road to recovery

As ugly a year as it has been for equity investors, conditions have improved in the last two months. The S&P 500 rallied 15% from its June 16 low and in doing so recaptured half its year-to-date losses. That leaves the U.S. stock market at a virtual crossroads, midway between its all-time high and its 2022 bottom. Given how much negativity was priced into equities earlier this summer, it was only a matter of time before the momentum reversed course. That said, there is very little consensus about where the market goes from here.